Temperatures cool following winter storm

Snow and very cold air predicted through mid-week

Shaun Evertson
Posted 1/27/23

KIMBALL – Last week’s winter storm began with freezing fog on Tuesday afternoon, Jan. 17. Snowfall began later in the evening and continued for about 24 hours. By Thursday morning, Jan. 19, Kimball had received a little more than a foot of snow containing a bit more than an inch of liquid water. During and after the storm winds were generally mild, however, the persistent northwest breeze caused continual drifting making travel and livestock feeding difficult at times.

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Temperatures cool following winter storm

Snow and very cold air predicted through mid-week

Posted

KIMBALLLast week’s winter storm began with freezing fog on Tuesday afternoon, Jan. 17. Snowfall began later in the evening and continued for about 24 hours. By Thursday morning, Jan. 19, Kimball had received a little more than a foot of snow containing a bit more than an inch of liquid water. During and after the storm winds were generally mild, however, the persistent northwest breeze caused continual drifting making travel and livestock feeding difficult at times.

Deep snow covering wheat fields and stubble was a welcome sight for many farmers. If nothing else, the snow will insulate wheat plants from pending cold air, and at least some of the snow cover may percolate into the ground and provide a bit of much needed soil moisture.

In and around Kimball County, cattle on well managed winter pasture and rangeland, as well as cattle on corn stalks, generally had to have supplemental hay feeding as much of the available winter forage was under a foot or more of snow. Most operators found keeping cattle fed and watered an ongoing challenge.

By Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service was forecasting a period of deep cold and snow flurries through the end of January and perhaps well into February. Forecasts beyond 72 hours are notoriously unreliable, so only time will tell how the remaining winter weather will play out.

Regional Forecast and Conditions

As of Tuesday morning (Jan. 24), the temperature at sunrise was 23 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. Winds were northwest at 15 mph and the barometer was slowly rising through 30.02 inches of mercury (in/Hg).

Today’s weather (Friday, Jan. 27) is expected to be cloudy and breezy with a 20% chance of snow after 11 a.m. The daytime high should reach about 34 before falling off to about 11 under cloudy skies and a continued chance of snow. Day length will be 9 hours and 53 minutes, night length 14 hours and 7 minutes.

Saturday is forecast to be cloudy and cool with a continuing chance of snow. The daytime high should reach about 22. The evening is expected to remain cloudy with a continuing chance of snow and an overnight low plunging to -2 degrees.

Sunday is predicted to remain cloudy with a chance of snow and quite cold. The daytime high is expected to top out at 9 degrees before falling off to -8 degrees overnight.

Monday is expected to remain cloudy and quite cold with a continuing chance of snow. The high should be about 10 degrees before falling off to about -10 overnight.

At Kimball, the Jan. 17-23 daytime high averaged 29.14 degrees, about 10.86 degrees cooler than last week. The weekly high temperature was 34 degrees on Jan. 17. Overnight lows averaged 14 degrees, about 9 degrees cooler than last week. The weekly low temperature was 3 degrees on Jan. 20. The weekly mean temperature at Kimball was 21.57 degrees, about 9.93 degrees cooler than last week and 5.33 degrees cooler than the January average of 26.9 degrees. The 129-year month-to-date (Jan. 1-27) average daily temperature is 26.6. The highest Jan. 1-27 daily average was 35.4 degrees in 2006, with the lowest 9.4 in 1930. The 130-year average high and low temperatures at Kimball for January are 40.3 and 13.4, respectively.

Total liquid precipitation at Kimball over the Jan. 17-23 period was 1.18 inches from 12.6 inches of snow.
Winds near Kimball averaged west southwesterly and occasionally gusty over the Jan. 17-23 period. Gusts for the week averaged 22 mph. High gust for the week was 30 mph on Jan. 18.

Historic climate data

Here’s an overview of Jan. 27 temperature and precipitation highs, lows, and averages over the preceding 130 years at Kimball. Data is taken from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (www.hprcc.unl.edu), where you can find and track data for your own particular location.

Last year (Jan. 27, 2022): Daily high temperature 29 degrees, overnight low 12 degrees, average temperature 20.5 degrees. Precipitation 0.1 inches, snowfall 1 inch, snow depth 1 inch.

The warmest Jan. 27 on record was 71 degrees in 1982. The coolest Jan. 27 high temperature was 5 degrees in 2009. The coldest Jan. 27 overnight low was -20 degrees in 2009. The warmest Jan. 27 overnight low was 31 degrees in 1982. Over the years since 1893 the high temperature on Jan. 27 has averaged 40 degrees, the overnight low 13 degrees, the daily average 26.7 degrees, precipitation has averaged 0.01 inches, snowfall 0.1 inches, snow depth zero inches.

The highest Jan. 27 precipitation total was 0.48 inches (4 inches snow) in 1944. Highest snowfall was 6.0 inches in 1973, highest snow depth 9 inches in 1949.

USDA Weekly Weather Bulletin, Jan. 17

Significant precipitation (and storminess) shifted into the Southwest before taking aim on the central Plains and much of the eastern one-third of the U.S. Snow across the central Plains caused travel disruptions and temporarily increased livestock stress—but provided much-needed moisture and insulation for drought-stressed winter wheat.

California finally got a reprieve from relentless storms, allowing flood-damage assessments to begin. Meanwhile in the Sierra Nevada, mountain snowpack exceeded the amount expected to fall during an entire October-March season with the average water equivalency topping 33 inches. For California’s farming communities, the bounteous wet season portended more favorable water allocations for 2023, albeit with complications related to lingering standing water and infrastructural damage to levees, roads, and farm buildings and equipment.

Precipitation was highly variable across the Midwest, South, and East, with most areas experiencing unusually warm weather and some locations receiving significant rain or snow. Some of the heaviest rain, locally 2 inches or more, fell in the central Gulf Coast region and environs. Snow was mainly limited to the North, from the upper Midwest to northern New England.

Midwestern weekly temperatures generally averaged 10 to 20 degrees above normal, except in a few western areas—such as Nebraska—where heavy snow fell. Readings also averaged at least 10 degrees above normal in parts of the Northeast and scattered locations from the southern Plains into the mid-South. In contrast, temperatures averaged at least 5 to 10 degrees below normal in many locations from Oregon and California eastward across the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and Southwest.

USDA Monthly Crop Progress Reports

Nebraska and Wyoming weekly crop progress reports will begin in April. Winter monthly reports will be released on Jan. 30, Feb. 27, and March 27. Colorado weekly crop progress reports will begin in March. Winter monthly reports will be released on Jan. 30 and Feb. 27.

U.S. Drought Monitor

USDM reports derive normals/averages from the most recent 30-year period, though longer timescale data are used where available. The USDM generally reports on current drought conditions and offers a comprehensive history of drought across the Continental U.S. Near-term temperature and precipitation predictions derive from National Weather Service (NWS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts.

Current drought status for the Nebraska Panhandle, Southwest Wyoming, and Northeast Colorado. Drought Categories: D0 – abnormally dry. D1 – moderate drought. D2 – severe drought. D3 – extreme drought. D4 – exceptional drought.

(Jan. 17, 2022) There was heavy rain and high-elevation snow across part of the West, leading to drought improvements in California, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies and the Great Basin. A band of heavy rainfall, combined with severe weather, impacted the Southeast, leading to areas of drought improvement in Georgia. Meanwhile, persistent dryness led to the expansion of drought in the Carolinas. Drought in the High Plains remains largely unchanged; much of the excess moisture is tied up in snowpack and its effects on soil moisture and groundwater recharge remain to be seen. Drought expanded across parts of the South where short-term moisture deficits on top of longer-term drought continue to build.

High Plains – Much of the High Plains remained in a holding pattern last week. Areas that received abundant snowfall over the Water Year are slow to make improvements due to the long-term nature of drought in the region. Until spring melt shows verified evidence of soil moisture and groundwater recharge, it will be difficult to tell how much effect snow has had on drought conditions. Severe (D2) drought improved in eastern North Dakota, which has received 16 to 20 inches of snow this season. No areas deteriorated significantly, except for areas of abnormal dryness (D0) in South Dakota and Colorado.

West – The long-term drought continued across California, the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest. However, widespread precipitation has reduced the drought intensity over the past few weeks. In California, 1-category improvements were made along the Northern Coast, around the Delta and along the South Coast region. While this last round of rain has helped return smaller reservoirs to the historical averages, many of the larger reservoirs still remain below the historical average for this time of year. Many other parts of the West also saw improvements to drought and abnormally dry areas. In Oregon, 1-category improvements were made to extreme (D3) and severe (D2) drought in the southeast and near Klamath County. In Idaho, severe (D2) and moderate (D1) drought improved over the last 30 with positive effect on stream flows, soil moisture, and groundwater. Heavy precipitation helped erase areas of abnormal dryness in parts of Washington, Oregon, western Wyoming, western Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico.

Near-term forecast – The 6-10-day outlook (through Jan. 31) calls for below-normal temperatures over most of the country except for the Northeast, Southeast and Alaska. The Northeast can expect near-normal temperatures, while the Southeast and Alaska have the greatest probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Most of the U.S. can expect near- to slightly above-normal precipitation. Only the Pacific Northwest and northern Minnesota have increased odds for below-normal precipitation.

Terminology: EDDI – Evaporative Demand Drought Index. This is an experimental model for drought prediction, using nationwide data from 1980-present. SPI – Standardized Precipitation Index, correlating present month/year precipitation with 30-plus year historical data. SPEI – Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. SWE – Snow Water Equivalent. 

For more information on the U.S. Drought Monitor, including an explanation of terminology, visit http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu.